Does the mid-Atlantic United States sea-level acceleration hot spot reflect ocean dynamic variability?

To test a hypothesized faster-than-global sea-level acceleration along the mid-Atlantic United States, I construct a Gaussian process model that decomposes tide gauge data into short-term variability and longer-term trends, and into globally-coherent, regionally-coherent and local components. While tide gauge records indicate a faster-than-global increase in the rate of mid-Atlantic U.S. sea-level rise beginning ⇠1975, this acceleration could reflect either the start of a long-term trend or ocean dynamic variability. The acceleration will need to continue for ⇠2 decades before the rate of increase of the sea-level di↵erence between the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S. can be judged as very likely unprecedented by 20th century standards. However, the di↵erence is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Gulf Stream North Wall indices, all of which are currently within the range of past variability.